Once again, there was a flurry of news from the White House, alternating between reassuring announcements on trade and geopolitical issues, and anxiety-provoking ones (or vice versa). Visibility remains particularly poor, and a logical wait-and-see attitude is insidiously taking hold among economic agents in the USA. Concerns are emerging about the sustainability of US public deficits, and more generally about the attractiveness of long-dated US bonds, which explains why 30-year yields are once again close to 5%.

At the same time, talks on a possible ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine are at a standstill, demonstrating President Trump's impotence. The Nato summit scheduled for the end of June will probably be accompanied by a significant increase in member spending towards 3.5% of GDP, with a peak of 5% for certain countries close to Europe's eastern border. The defense sector therefore continued its ascent, but we initiated profit-taking, after some spectacular stock market performances.

As expected, Novo Nordisk has revised its 2025 organic growth target downwards (from +16-24% to +13-21%), due to lower growth in the USA under pressure from Wegovy compounding drugs, which have been banned from sale since May 22. On the other hand, we had not anticipated the forced departure of the CEO, initiated at the request of the main shareholder, the Novo Holding foundation. The Danish group has clearly underperformed in many areas (R&D, communication, production, US market share) compared with its major American competitor Lilly. A change of leadership is understandable. At the same time, the Group has announced a raft of partnerships with mutual insurance companies and distributors to revitalize prescriptions. In the short term, we will have full data on the latest Cagrisema clinical trial at the American Diabetes Association meeting at the end of June.

Also in Denmark, the world leader in enzymes and probiotics, Novonesis (from the merger of Chr Hansen and Novozymes), reported a very solid Q1 with organic growth of +11%. We were satisfied with all our geographies and divisions. Innovation, size and regulatory changes are structural factors of outperformance. Margins are high and cash flow generation abundant. We may raise our 2025 targets at the half-yearly results.

Despite a still-anemic European economy, Swiss sanitaryware leader Geberit has reported above-expectation organic growth of +5%, after several lean years. The company is 90% exposed to Europe, and in particular to the DACH zone (Germany, Austria, Switzerland). Lower short-term interest rates and the prospect of a stimulus plan in Germany explain a slight improvement in order intake.

In Luxury Goods, the Richemont Group's Jewelry division reported excellent organic growth in the last quarter (+11%), despite a declining China. The US and Europe more than compensated. The desirability of the brands (Cartier, Van Cleef & Arpels, Buccellati, etc.), a category seen as a store of value, limited competition and a successful new management team explain this performance, which was far better than that of its peers (LVMH, Kering, etc.).

In terms of smallcaps, Harvia (N°1 worldwide in Sauna) has clearly reassured us about the USA. In Q1, growth remained at a high level (+14% lfl), but margins recovered significantly compared with Q4 (22.9% vs. 17.1%). Karnov, the leader in legal databases in Scandinavia (and Spain/France to a lesser extent), is just beginning to benefit from the contributions of artificial intelligence to its products. This is why we anticipate an acceleration in organic growth over the coming years.

On the other hand, Merck disappointed us once again, with a downward revision of its annual targets. The position was sold in full.