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September 15, 2017
The acceleration of economic growth in Europe and the inflation in the US advocate for a change in monetary policy

The pace of economic growth in the eurozone is accelerating. A number of enlightened forecasters predicted a GDP increase of over 2% in 2017. Although this symbolic threshold may even by surpassed this year, it remains to be seen whether the eurozone will accelerate further in 2018. For the time being, nothing is indicating the contrary.

In the...

8 September 2017
ECB maintains status quo pending the October meeting.

Harvey, Irma, successive cyclones unfortunately wreak the same havoc on the landscape.

Their economic impact, particularly in the US where Florida is expected to be hit again, will not be negligible however and a wide range of industries will be affected, although the dynamic US and global momentum is not expected to be hampered. Global synchronised expansion across the board is a rare enough event to merit highlighting. As expected, the ECB did not modify its asset purchase programme. It is expected to do so at its October meeting and finally succeed...

1 September 2017
Tensions on the Korean peninsula, historic flooding in Texas, strong Euro… major events broke a stretch of and could set the tone on financial markets for the next weeks.

The launch of a missile by North Korea over Japan has rekindled the diplomatic crisis between the US and the rogue nation. The Americans are also facing Hurricane Harvey which is devastating Texas and adding to the reigning anxiety. It will take some time for the state’s oil infrastructures to resume production. Although the impact on the US has yet to be fully assessed, the economy is nonetheless continuing to expand, despite the absence of any decision regarding tax reforms for the time being. After constant one-way investment flow since April...

25 August 2017
Berlusconi is back. Status quo after Jackson Hole Symposium.

The markets, caught in snooze mode during the sunny return from the summer recess, were rudely awoken by the potential resurgence of the Italian political mogul Silvio Berlusconi ahead of the legislative elections in April 2018. Potential allegiances centred around Forza Italia, the party led by the man who has played a key role in the Italian political scene since 1994, with either the PD or an alliance between the Lega Nord and Fratelli d'Italia have so far failed to secure an absolute majority. The protagonists nonetheless perceive these...

18 August 2017
A week marked by the Barcelona terror attacks

There was no major economic or financial newsflow last week. Markets were erratic and generally less bullish than before the summer. The tragic terrorist attacks in Barcelona served as a reminder that Europe is still under threat, whilst simultaneously attempting to absorb or stem migratory pressure. Terrorism failed to curb the economic dynamism in Europe however. Unemployment in France fell for the eighth consecutive quarter and now stands at 9.2%. The 8.5% threshold could be breached next year. The uptick in the employment rate, albeit belated,...

11 August 2017
The ambient cold war atmosphere has chilled investors and frozen investment decisions.

The ambient cold war atmosphere has chilled investors and frozen investment decisions.

Although the war of words between the US and North Korea should not be taken lightly, it is even harder to anticipate political events and decisions than to predict the year-end level of equity indices. A closer look reveals that the years covering the real, or rather the first, cold war (1947-1989) were a plentiful period for the global economy and equity markets. Of course the world’s economies ebbed and flowed and suffered crises during this period, although...

4 August 2017
The US banking sector ended at its highest level for 10 years.

American politics increasingly resemble a bad farce. The recent resignation of White House Communications Director, Anthony Scaramucci, provided a curious historical flashback to the Comedia Dell'Arte character Scaramouche, who was an unreliable and boastful character played by Italian actor Tiberio Fiorillo in the 17th century and referred to in a number of works by the renowned French writer Molière. After Michael Flynn and Rience Priebus, this third resignation leaves the impression that the new US administration is playing out some of the worst...

28 July 2017
America is back (great ?) again.

Whether America is great again may remain a subject for debate, but it has certainly been making news. Recently, the world’s greatest economic power has been firing on all cylinders: the S&P 500 is at a record high; blue-chip companies like McDonalds and Caterpillar have posted excellent results; the government is pursuing new sanctions against Russia, Venezuelan officials and Chinese companies operating in North Korea; and the Navy fired warning shots at an Iranian vessel in the Persian Gulf. Despite Trump’s isolationist campaign rhetoric,...

21 July 2017
Mario Draghi’s comments downward markets trend

Procrastination by central bankers is still causing slight tension on the markets. Indeed, Mario Draghi cooled off investors that had been warmed by Janet Yellen's reassuring message on US growth. The ECB will therefore not be making any announcements about its asset purchase programme before the last quarter of this year. Apart from this shift in communication, the ECB nevertheless underscored the endogenous strength of European growth.

In the US, the Trump administration is racking up failures in all attempts to implement its campaign promises...