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Central banks, a little closer to the stars
Analysis by Florent Wabont, Chief Economist at DNCA Finance.
Principles & outlooks
1 min
2026 Mid-Year Review
KEY TAKEAWAYS
Growth
Supported by AI and government stimulus and support measures, economic growth is expected to continue. Only an escalation in military or geopolitical conflicts would be likely to derail this environment.
Monetary policy
Rate cuts are no longer on the agenda for 2026. Few policy moves are expected in 2027, although a very wide range of scenarios remains possible.
Fiscal policy
Given the lack of political willingness to address rising debt levels, certain sovereign debt markets could become a source of stress.
Inflation
The current rise in inflation is entirely attributable to higher energy prices. Over the medium term, factors likely to push inflation higher remain more numerous than those likely to contain it.
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