After a particularly volatile April, equity markets rebounded sharply in May, buoyed by a global economic improvement and a return of risk appetite following the Trump administration's announcement of a further 3-month tariff pause. The MSCI World rose by +5.9%, led by the US indices where the S&P 500 gained +6.3% and the Nasdaq +9.1%, buoyed by resilient economic activity and a reassuring earnings season. In Europe, performances were more measured but remained solid, with the Euro Stoxx up +5.7% and the Stoxx 600 up +5.1%.
The macroeconomic climate was dominated by renewed confidence in the United States, with the labor market remaining resilient (+177,000 new jobs). The decline in the risk of recession (probability down to 35%) and improved consumer confidence fuelled optimism. Nevertheless, inflation forecasts remain tense, with CPI expected to exceed 3% as early as May and potentially reach 4% by the end of the year. Although under pressure, the Fed did not change rates in June, suggesting that the tightening cycle is not yet over.
In Europe, the ECB cut its key rates by 25 basis points, a signal of easing offset by a cautious message about the future pace of cuts. Economic activity remains sluggish, but leading indicators suggest that German stimulus plans will have a positive impact in the medium term.
The month's good performance should not mask the uncertainties that remain, notably the debate over the US budget and the customs threats against Europe reiterated at the end of the month. Congress narrowly approved the Trump administration's budget plan, a highly inflationary program that could put pressure back on long-term yields (10-year US at 4.4%).
Finally, the 1st quarter earnings season proved solid, with nearly 80% of US companies and 59% of European companies reporting above expectations. These good results tend to reinforce the scenario of a soft landing, although a rise in costs linked to customs duties remains to be monitored.
Against this backdrop, the fund posted a monthly performance of 6.08%, compared with 5.89% for its benchmark index, the MSCI AC World.
Over the month, the main relative outperformances of the stocks in the portfolio (versus MSCI AC World) were: Johnson Controls International (+35 bps, active weight +2.5%), First Solar (+33 bps, active weight +2.0%), TSMC (+33 bps, active weight +4.4%), Vertiv (+31 bps, active weight +1.7%) and Prysmian (+25 bps, active weight +2.2%).
Conversely, the worst relative performers were: Danaher (-40 bps, active weight +3.7%), Thermo Fischer (-39 bps, active weight +3.2%), Eli Lilly (-37 bps, active weight +1.3%), Bharti Airtel (-25 bps, active weight +3.3%) and IFF 5-20 bps, active weight +2.4%).
Among the main movements, in Healthcare we exited our holdings in Daiichi Sankyo and CSL, and reduced our position in Veeva. In renewable energies, following the Trump administration's budget proposal to overhaul tax credits, we also exited our position in Enphase.
At month-end, the portfolio comprised 34 stocks. Overall, the fund's top 10 holdings account for almost 42.4% of net assets, with the top 5 comprising the following stocks: TSMC (> 5.0%), Palo Alto (> 5.0%), Nvidia (> 4.5%), Microsoft (> 4.0%) and Xylem (> 4.0%).
Following on from the month of April, during a period of high volatility, the fund continued to perform well in terms of both absolute and relative performance. The relatively cautious allocation to the United States (59% in the portfolio vs. 65% in the MSCI AC World), due to the diversified positioning of the technology stocks (30% of the fund) outside the stocks most affected by the Magnificent 7 (Apple, Amazon, Meta), combined with our diversification into industrial and healthcare stocks, has provided an interesting balance in the various market phases since Liberation Day. The 1st quarter results publication period is now drawing to a close, and the observation made last month still holds true: figures for the start of the year are correct in view of trade tensions, and guidance for 2025 is on the whole constructive in view of the lack of visibility for management teams. Nevertheless, we remain vigilant on 3 fronts: currency effects (particularly the dollar), the effects of stockpiling ahead of potential price rises, which may temporarily accelerate business volumes, and the lack of visibility on the annual outlook. From this point of view, it is very likely that second-quarter publications will be a better indicator of business and profitability trends.