Igor de maack %282%29
July 21, 2017
Mario Draghi’s comments downward markets trend

Procrastination by central bankers is still causing slight tension on the markets. Indeed, Mario Draghi cooled off investors that had been warmed by Janet Yellen's reassuring message on US growth. The ECB will therefore not be making any announcements about its asset purchase programme before the last quarter of this year. Apart from this shift...

14 July 2017
DNCA's weekly market outlook by Igor de Maack

Janet Yellen gave the markets a real boost by announcing that the US economy is in strong health and will be able to support future rate hikes. Her speech therefore restored bullish sentiment among equity markets after several weeks of hesitation. Of course the forthcoming reporting season still needs to confirm the trend. In China, the communist regime has proven incapable of curbing the real-estate bubble. It would even appear that as the authorities impose increasingly strict controls to stem the property boom, buyers pile more readily into...

7 July 2017
DNCA's weekly market outlook by Igor de Maack

The markets were once again caught off guard by a sudden rise in interest rates. The more hawkish and reflationary tone from central bankers also further steepened yields. The situation has become untenable in the European bond markets, where liquidity has dried-up as a result of the ECB repurchase programme. Investors are struggling to buy securities, particularly in the credit and high yield segments, triggering cries of “it’s a bid-only market” among the market-makers on the trading floors. Interest rates in the eurozone are clearly not coherent...

30 June 2017
DNCA's weekly market outlook by Igor de Maack

Just like the summer migration of millions of European families, investors are also mobilising by selling equity markets which have become more volatile. The VIX index rallied to 11.7 vs 10 over previous weeks. One explanation for the increase in volatility stems from increased awareness among bond markets, which had once again been put to sleep by long-term rates returning to their excessively low levels last seen in November.

The idea that long-term rates should track the underlying macroeconomic trend and therefore steepen, was triggered by a more...

23 June 2017
DNCA's weekly market outlook by Igor de Maack

Equity markets are taking a breather ahead of the summer recess. The bullish trend has levelled off, weighed down by fears over a further sharp fall in the oil price, with the reporting season yet to get underway, as some investors are looking to lock-in partial profits on their year-to-date performances. Certain markets and themes, or certain regions have indeed posted significant returns. Long term rates have fallen, bucking the expected trend. Steeper rates over the next few months could signal the resurgence of a bullish trend in equities,...

16 June 2017
DNCA's weekly market outlook by Igor de Maack

Markets remained unsettled by the oil price. Although indicators were all denoting a sustainable increase in the price of crude, the opposite occurred, despite the decline in US oil reserves and the OPEC decision to extend output quotas along with Russia, while credit lines to the US shale oil & gas industry appeared to be drying up. The number of US rigs continues to increase however and oil stocks are taking longer than anticipated to deplete. Furthermore, an increasing number of measures to promote energy transition, particularly in the...

15 June 2017
"The perfect time"

Find our macroeconomic outlook for the Eurozone and our investment strategy by Jean-Charles Mériaux, Chief Investment Officer.

9 June 2017
DNCA's weekly market outlook by Igor de Maack

Theresa May has woken up this morning having lost her absolute majority, resulting in a hung parliament. The Brexit negotiations will therefore not be plain sailing for the politicians involved or for the UK economy. The currency markets reacted immediately, with sterling depreciating slightly against the euro. In the US, it is impossible to predict the legal repercussions following the testimony by the former FBI director, perhaps involving an impeachment procedure against Donald Trump. The US economy remains on a steady annualised growth rate of 2%,...

2 June 2017
DNCA's weekly market outlook by Igor de Maack

Both the announcement by Donald Trump of the US withdrawal from the Paris agreement and a temporary petrol shortage in the Paris region following industrial action, provide strong grounds for asking legitimate questions regarding the oil sector and more generally the energy industry, which are crucial for the economy and for the stock market. The oil price fell to below USD 47 per barrel in reaction to the US decision, undermining the consensus scenario predicting a progressive rally in the price of crude towards USD 60. A broad-ranging debate is...